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The Adjustment of the Economic Structure is Accelerating,The Pressure on the Employment Market is Increasing——The 2016 First Quarterly Review of Employment in China Was Held Successfully in RUC

On April 14, 2016, China Institute for Employment Research successfully held 2016 First Quarterly Review of Employment in China at Room 347 of Qiushi Building, RUC. Zhang Ying, Deputy Director of Department of Employment Promotion of Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Peng Yongtao, Deputy Director of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics, Wu Jie, Chief of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics, Zhang Xiaoguang, Director of the Human Resources Research and Development Center of Suzhou Industrial Park, Hao Jian, Senior Human Resources Consultant of Zhilian Zhao Pin, Li Qiang,

Marketing Communications Director of Zhilian Zhao Pin, Hao Jianbin, Employment Research Director of Alibaba Group, Feng Xin, Assistant director of Policy Research Institute of Didi Taxi, etc, attended the meeting at invitation. Professor Yang Weiguo, Dean of SLHR, Professor Zeng Xiangquan, Director of CIER, Professor Zhao Zhong, Deputy dean of SLHR, and other researchers, Ding Dajian, Geng Lin, Wu Qingjun, Li Yuhui, Zhang Chenggang, Xu Changjie, etc., also participated in the meeting. The meeting was hosted by Associate Professor Ge Yuhao, Researcher of CIER.

To begin with, Professor Yang Weiguo gave thanks on behalf of SLHR to the support and efforts of the government, enterprises and the academia to the quarterly employment analysis conference. He said this year's employment problem is particularly important, hoping everyone to analyze and share the new tendency of the employment, and expected the meeting to become the wind vane of the Chinese employment situation and make more contributions to employment decision making. In the theme report stage, CIER researcher Geng Lin gave a speech entitled “The Analysis of 2016 First Quarter Chinese Employment Situation-- based on the data of Zhilian Zhao Pin”. Research has shown that, due to the fall in the price of fresh food and part of the service project, the CPI fell 0.4% in March, rose 2.3%; due to the influences of the end of the holiday and the acceleration of the supply side structural reforms, the PPI fell 0.5% in March, down 4.3%. Manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to the extended interval, non manufacturing business activity index rose larger.

Based on the above economic situation, in the first quarter of 2016, the number of recruiting demand was essentially flat compared with last quarter, but the number of job applicants has significantly increased, Which led to the decline of the CIER index. For accurately reflecting the degree of the boom index in the employment market, eliminating the long-term trends and seasonal factors, the result is that from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016 CIER index showed a trend of declining, the employment pressure increases, The weakness in employment market and the 2015 macroeconomic situation is consistent. Based on the prediction of the CIER index cycle factors shows that the CIER index of the second quarter of 2016 will continue downward.

For industries, due to the more prominent structural problems of the current domestic economic, CIER index has more obvious differences in different industries. Specifically, the CIER index in the Internet/e-commerce, funds/securities, traffic/transportation and intermediary services and other industries is relatively high; the CIER index in the accounting, aviation/aerospace, energy/mineral, cross field operation, electrical/electric/hydraulic and other traditional service industry, heavy industry and mineral industry is relatively poor. For occupations, due to the low technology content, nature of the work or the single contents, the transportation services, technicians/operators and sales professional jobs lack job attractiveness,which make these occupations has higher CIER index; automobile manufacturing, energy/mineral/geological exploration, environmental science/environmental protection, project management/project coordination, production management/operation and other traditional occupations has lower CIER index. For regions, the whole recruitment demand quantity in the eastern, central and western regions were lower than last quarter, the whole job applicants were higher than last quarter, the CIER Index of all regions were significantly lower than last quarter, the pressure of the regional employment market continues to increase. Among them, the CIER index of the eastern region fell the most. For urban levels, the CIER index of the first-tier cities, new line and second-tier cities had all decreased, compared with last quarter. Among them, the CIER index of the first-tier cities fell the most, the CIER index of new line and second-tier cities decreased at almost the same rate. For enterprise size, CIER index from the highest to the lowest were the micro, small, medium and large enterprises, all the CIER index of different-sized enterprises were less than last quarter, which had shown that the current employment situation is relatively severe. For enterprise nature, the CIER index of enterprises with different nature was significantly lower than last quarter, and the rank of the CIER index just had little change. CIER index from the highest to the lowest were private enterprises, shares of enterprises, joint ventures, state-owned enterprises, wholly foreign-owned, listed companies and industry unit, indicating that the downward pressure on the economy has great influence on the boom of the enterprises.

Director Zhang Xiaoguang delivered a speech entitled "Report Human Resources Situation in Suzhou Industrial Park in the Firsr Quarter of 2016”.Firstly, he analyzed human resources index of the park in the first quarter of 2016 and market data, influenced by the economic environment, labor employment for park enterprises tends to be cautious, tends to be cautious, fell by 27.8% year on year, the supply of the human resource market is relatively stable, an increase of 3.9%, and the employment confidence of some job seekers will be reduced.The features of human resources market and employment situation of graduates showed that: (1) The employment demand of the traditional manufacturing has slowdown, the employment demand of the service industry is strong; (2) The high-end talents are in the shortage; (3) The rising labor costs of the park enterprise is limited.; (4) Emerging industry salary growth rate is higher than the traditional industry; (5) The modern service industry, nanotechnology applications and cloud computing has recruited higher proportion of graduates, while electronic information and other traditional manufacturing industries had weak ability of absorbing graduating students. (6) The starting salary of Suzhou industrial park enterprises recruiting graduates shows that the middle rise, both ends of a downward trend. With the college, undergraduate, master's degree graduates income increased slightly, the junior high school, high school, technical school and doctoral graduates income declined. At last, he made predictions on human resource situation of the Second quarter of 2016: (1)The recruitment demand of most enterprises expected to decrease. 69.6% of the enterprises expected the recruitment demand of second quarter employment will be flat, 11.5% of the enterprise expected it will reduce, only 18.9% of the enterprises expected it will increase; (2) In the 2016 second quarter, the recruitment demand of manufacturing enterprises will decline significantly, service industry and high-tech industry’s demand is relatively stable.

The director of China Institute for Employment Research, Professor Zeng Xianquan made a report entitled "The Impact of the capacity reduction of the coal, iron and steel industry on Employment -- based on the survey in Shanxi province". Recently, Professor Zeng Xiangquan went to Taiyuan and Lvliang, and did research on the production capacity and employment status of the regional iron and steel enterprises. The results of the survey show that due to the impact of decline in market demand and government policy of resource integration, The excess production capacity of coal enterprises is serious, leading to a sharp rise in the company redundant personnel, a decrease in the number of employee and their wages, the enterprises are facing heavy debt burden. The overall capacity utilization of the state-owned iron and steel enterprises is low, enterprise financial general deficit and debt burden overweight. The excess personnel problem of State iron and steel enterprise is outstanding, and under the influence of corporate governance structure, iron rice bowl thought deeply rooted, dismissal of employees is very difficult, the capability of the employee to deal with the changes of the external environment is low, and the labor market is lacked of the flexibility. Although the local coal, iron and steel enterprise has made some preliminary measures to solve the above problem, but the effect is small, and the local government's devotion to public employment services and construction is  insufficient, the software and hardware infrastructure is very backward. According to the investigation, he suggested that the central and local governments, especially local governments should give full attention to the seriousness of the problem; the central and local governments should be introduced practical and effective policy measures to promote employmen, such as the timely release of both inside and outside job vacancy information, increase the investment in the construction of hardware and software in the employment market, and increase the employment policy evaluation; Deepening in the supply side reform of the state-owned enterprise governance structure, and fundamentally get rid of vicious circle mechanism of China's state-owned enterprises (blind expansion, recessive unemployment, worker layoffs, blind expansion, recessive unemployment, worker layoffs,,,,).

After that, in the free talk period, the leaders and experts spoke highly of the seminar and carried out extensive and in-depth discussions.

Zhang Ying, the Deputy Director of Department of Employment Promotion of Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, stressed that this year's employment situation is in a weak state stability, coincided with the employment market situation reflected by the CIER index, with the performance of the overall tight and weak tight. The current employment and unemployment rate is in the controllable range, the monitored focus groups (migrant workers, college students, etc.) are in a stable state of employment. But affected by the policy of reducing the excess capacity, the traditional manufacturing labor demand declined obviously, and could not be made up for the growth of new industry labor demand, resulting the increase of total unemployment, and the number of unemployed reached a record high. At the same time, recessive unemployment, unpaid wages, labor market owe insurance problems still exist, the rapid development of flexible employment, external labor influx increased demands, the domestic employment market contradictions become more prominent, and the policy of reducing the excess capacity will be deeply implemented, thus, the pressure of the employment markrt in the second quarter of 2016 is still large.

Peng Yongtao, the Deputy Director of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics, believed that according to the data of February and March, the unemployment rate has been gradually rising, economic downward pressure is bigger, the future form of employment is not optimistic. Embodied in the rising unemployment rate of agricultural household population, the large proportion of domestic short-term unemployed, the decreasing employee of scale above enterprise, and so on. He thought that the following problems still exist in the current labor market: The employment pattern has changed, the unemployment rate from high to low is small and medium-sized city, big city, the country; The level of activity of the labor market is reduced, the extent of labor supply and demand has declined; "Internet plus" and other new business have developed fast, but its ability to create more employment opportunities are still limited; The recessive unemployment problem gradually revealed. Finally, he hopes that China Institute for Employment Research could make intensive research on the recessive unemployment problem in the future, provide support for the national employment policy.

Wu Jie, the Chief of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics,

Mainly shared the 2016 annual survey data made by the National Bureau of Statistics, the data show that the overall unemployment rate has an upward trend, the unemployment population increases in the absolute amount; The enterprise employment is overall stable and decreased slightly, traditional manufacturing employment decreased more; The salary of all scale enterprises has different degree increased.

Li Qiang, the Marketing Communications Director of Zhilian Zhao Pin, from the perspective of micro data, analysis of the real state of enterprise recruitment and job seekers of the first quarter. First, the average per recruit positions received 48 resumes in the first quarter, roughly doubled than before, suggested that the professional competition is very fierce. Second, the most competitive city in the past is the first tier cities, this year the rank has changed, in addition to the two major cities of Beijing, shenzhen, other cities are all new first-tier cities in the top ten. Third, the analysis shows that although the enterprises in western region (Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi'an, etc.) are proved to be more conservative, enterprise development desire and hiring intentions is strong; the hiring intentions of the enterprises in Eastern region(Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun) are weakened, and the number of recruitment job has decline. Fourth, from the perspective of enterprise nature, although the recruitment demand of the state-owned enterprises has declined, and the amplitude of the wage increase is low, these enterprises are still the first choice for most job seekers; from the point of enterprise employee requirement, the requirements of enterprise for labor quality are higher and higher. Based on the above data, Zhilian Zhao Pin thinks that the employment situation is relatively serious in the first quarter, and the second quarter is likely to continue this state.

Hao Jian, the Senior Human Resources Consultant of Zhilian Zhao Pin, though that, in recent years, the structural contradiction of the labor market in China is becoming more and more, the demand for scientific research personnel or comprehensive technical personnel of enterprises, is still very strong, but this part of the talent supply is very limited, unable to meet the business needs. In contrast, the company's recruitment needs of ordinary employees is relatively weak, some of the employment groups have difficulties in employment. Affected by the adjustment of the industrial structure, the recruitment needs of the Internet, e-commerce enterprise have increased about 60%, while the recruitment needs of traditional manufacturing, foreign trade, energy and other enterprises have declined.

Hao Jianbin, the Employment Research Director of Alibaba Group, emphasized that the traditional society based on electricity energy is gradually replaced by society based on the Internet and big data, the increase of the proportion of service industry will bring a more positive impact on absorbing and transferring employment, the new economy will get rapid development in the future. The characteristics of the new economy are the main employment population become more younger, the main platform become more small, young people will become the core power in future economic growth, the flexible employment will become an important supplement for future employment patterns. He believes that in the formulation of national policy, need to consider the relationship between the old and new economy, to promote economic development and maintain employment stability. He argued that, the government need to consider the relationship between the old and the new economy, when it makes policy, and really play a role in promoting economic development and maintaining stable employment

Feng Xin, the Assistant Director of Policy Research Institute of Didi Taxi, shared the employment development of Didi Taxi. She believed that Didi Taxi platform now existing two types of employment,includes full-time drivers and part-time drivers, and the change of the car driver numbers showed anti economic cycle, namely in the weakening of the economic situation, the number of car drivers or single rate showed an upward trend, the economic situation of warmer, some car drivers back to their jobs. This platform is  very flexible, easing the city’s traffic pressure in a certain extent,and having a positive impact on the job market.

Professor Wu Qingjun, the Director of Industrial Relations of School of Labor and Human Resources, believed that economic fluctuations will cause the instability and volatility of employment, and further affect the instability and volatility of Industrial relations, the current labor contract law can’t regulate this dynamic labor relations, the existing social security system is difficult to cover or protection the flow between formal and informal occupation. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a bigger security system from the national level, rather than the mere employee security system.

Finally, Professor Zeng Xiangquan made a summary of the meeting. First, the social concerns on employment market include the structural contradictions and the total contradictions. Because the China’s economy is in transition, the employment market will face the throes of transition to a great extent, and the future analysis of the total employment must combine with the future structure of  labor market during the transition period. Second, China Institute for Employment Research will start the work about analyzing and releasing the region and industry employment information index. The current employment problems in our country, is embodied in some key areas and key areas, researching and publishing regional index, industry index and occupational index, will provide some guidance for the national economy transformation. Third, under the background of the new normal economy, The problems such as reducing excess capacity, recessive unemployment, international migrant labor, new formats employment, and how to develop better government policies to solve these problems, will become the new starting point of employment situation analysis in 2016, and also become the key focus of our future research. China Institute for Employment Research will hold a series of seminars timely, focused on the impact of new technology revolution, new formats on China's employment market, and invite relevant experts at home and abroad to make intense discussion, the government leaders and entrepreneurs also welcomed to participate actively.

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