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The 2015 Fourth Quarterly Review of Employment in China Was Held Succussfully in RUC

On January 19, 2016, China Institute for Employment Research successfully held 2015 Fourth Quarterly Review of Employment in China at Room 347 of Qiushi Building, RUC. Zhang Ying, Deputy Director of Department of Employment Promotion of Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Zhang Zhibin, Deputy Director of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics, Wu Jie, Chief of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics, Zhang Xiaoguang, Director of the Human Resources Research and Development Center of Suzhou Industrial Park, Hao Jian, Senior Human Resources Consultant of Zhilian Zhao Pin, Wang Yixin, Public Relations Supervisor of Zhilian Zhao Pin, Hao Jianbin, Employment Research Director of Alibaba Group, etc, attended the meeting at invitation. Professor Yang Weiguo, Dean of SLHR, Professor Zeng Xiangquan, Director of CIER, Zhou Rong, Deputy Chief of Enrollment and Employment Office of RUC and Director of students employment and Entrepreneurship guidance center, Wu Ziqiang, Deputy Party Secretary of SLHR, and other researchers, Geng Lin, Ge Yuhao, Zhang Chenggang, Xu Changjie, Shi Zhenzhen, Yang Tao, Mao Yufei, etc., also participated in the meeting. The meeting was hosted by Professor Yi Dinghong, Researcher of CIER.


To begin with, Professor Yang Weiguo gave thanks on behalf of SLHR to the support and efforts of the government, enterprises and the academia to the quarterly employment analysis conference. Then, he briefly introduced employment related research projects of CIER and SLHR. He hoped that further cooperation on academic research with National Ministry be made and that SLHR could make more contributions to employment decision making.


In the following panel discussion, CIER researcher Geng Lin gave a speech entitled “The Analysis of 2015 Fourth Quarter Chinese Employment Situation and the Prediction of the 2016”.Research shows that in the fourth quarter of 2015 than the third quarter, the number of recruiting demand has rebounded, the number of job applicants has declined, CIER index has increased. But eliminating the effect of seasonal factors and long-term factors, from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2015, job demand continues to rise, recruitment demand continued to decline, CIER index continued to decline. The weakness in employment market and the 2015 macroeconomic situation is consistent. Based on the prediction of the CIER index cycle factors shows that in 2016 the falling probability of the whole year CIER index cycle factors continued to be great, but the descending speed will be less than 2015. Superposition of long-term trends and seasonal factors, the 2016 CIER index may still show an overall upward trend, specific, the second quarter than the first quarter fell, the third quarter and the fourth quarter of the year will gradually rise.


Analysis of employment situation in different industries, thanks to the concept of "Internet +" crossover combined constantly promotion, the employment situation in the emerging service industries, such as Internet/e-commerce, funds/securities, is relatively good; the employment situation in accounting, energy/mineral processing and other traditional service industry and manufacturing is relatively poor. For occupations, transportation services, technicians/operators and sales professional job competition pressure is low, the employment situation is relatively good; Environmental science/environmental protection, automobile manufacturing and other post employment situation is relatively poor. For regions, the employment situation in the eastern, central and western regions has significantly improved, among them, the central region of the CIER index rose the highest. For urban levels, compared with the first tier cities, the improvement of employment situation in a new line and second-tier cities reflect more obvious. For enterprise size, CIER index from the highest to the lowest were the micro, small, medium and large enterprises, micro enterprise CIER index was significantly higher than the first quarter, and for the first time more than small businesses. For enterprise nature, the CIER index of private, joint-stock and joint venture enterprises is higher, and the total amount of talent supply and demand also occupy an absolute advantage, indicating that these enterprises reflect the better employment situation.


Director Zhang Xiaoguang delivered a speech entitled "Report Human Resources Situation in Suzhou Industrial Park in the Fourth Quarter of 2015”.Firstly, he analyzed human resources index of the park in the fourth quarter of 2015 and market data, compared with the third quarter, in the fourth quarter the labor demand for park enterprises has increased slightly, but compared with the same period last year, enterprise overall decline in labor demand is still more remarkable. The features of human resources market and employment situation of graduates showed that: (1) as labor dispatching regulations become increasingly standardized, dispatch staff ratio decreased year by year; (2) the software industry employees per capita annual income is highest, traditional industry employees per capita annual income is low; (3) the enterprise internal pay gap widens, blue-chip high employee wages; (4) the park enterprise salary adjustment is generally stable, rising labor costs is limited; (5) compared to last year, junior-college degree income declined slightly, undergraduate-doctoral degree income had a certain extent increase, the doctoral degree income is up to the highest proportion of income; (6) according to the prediction of the recruitment of graduates of 2016, the modern service industry, nanotechnology applications and cloud computing are expected to recruit higher proportion of graduates, while electronic information and other traditional manufacturing industries had weak ability of absorbing graduating students.At last, he made predictions on human resource situation of the first quarter of 2016: (1) in the first quarter of 2016 recruitment plan basically stable, high-tech and service industry enterprise recruitment plan all have edged up, manufacturing industry enterprise recruitment plans to drop somewhat compared to the same period. (2) in the first quarter of 2016, the recruitment needs of Asian and European venture company has declined, Chinese companies and American companies show relatively strong absorption capacity of employees.


Employment Research Director Hao Jianbin delivered a speech entitled "e-commerce promote employment inclusive growth”.He believes that the diversity, flexibility characteristics of e-commerce , in the future will certainly promote inclusive growth in employment. First, he briefly introduced the understanding of Alibaba of the employment inclusive, namely the amount of future employment and employment income will be the growth of the universality, includes not only the elite, is more of the grass-roots people, vulnerable groups employment quality and employment income.Next, the report select two cases include the disabled to open the shop and Taobao partners in the countryside rural Taobao partner, which believe that: (1) the emergence of a large number of platform based employment. The traditional way of employment is that employees are employed in a specific enterprise, through the enterprise and the market exchange value, and the platform type jobs are connected through the virtual platform and market, realize the market value of the individual. Platform type employment give full play to the advantages of the Internet platform gathered passenger flow, to achieve the maximum utilization of the individual system, so that the supply and demand better integration and deployment. (2) entrepreneurship go into a tiny times. The infrastructure of Cloud computing and Big Data has a strong breakthrough, the rapid penetration of the infrastructure of the Internet and the internet of things, the appearance of the intelligent terminal and APP application of rise, will all accelerate the venture into the tinyl time. The future will be the platform type of employment, will be small and micro entrepreneurship and employment.


After that, in the free talk period, the leaders and experts spoke highly of the seminar and carried out extensive and in-depth discussions.


Zhang Ying, the Deputy Director of Department of Employment Promotion of Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Highly affirmed the accurate and innovative of the China 2015 Fourth Quarterly Review of Employment , which had introduced recent employment situation in china with a large number of data and policies for example. She introduced the analysis and summary of the 2015 employment situation and the anticipation of the employment situation in 2016, made by Department of Employment Promotion. Finally, Zhang explained the employment and entrepreneurship situation of employment of the college graduates, rural poverty alleviation and urbanization in the new youth groups, which  provide a train of thought for future research topics.


Zhang Zhibin, the Deputy Director of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics, believed that Suzhou Industrial Park report can be a good reflection of some problems in the employment market, at the same time gave highly affirmed on employment inclusive growth. Network employment may become a new employment trend in the future, and change the supply of labor market and product market in a certain extent. Finally, he hopes that the China Institute for Employment Research will be able to incorporate industry, professional long-term change trend into the analysis, promote research to a wider range and deeper development.


Wu Jie, the Chief of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics, From the 2015 annual population survey, labor force survey, enterprise employment survey, some of the province's human resources market situation and other aspects, analyzed the 2015 annual overall employment situation, think that, Although there has the existence of unfavorable factors, such as a contradiction in the total employment, reemployment prominent, rural labor transfer pressure, but due to the economic growth will continue to drive the new growth point, and the public entrepreneurship and peoples innovation incentive effect, overall judgment is that in 2016 the overall employment situation will remain relatively stable, or is tightening in the stable.


Zhou Rong, the Deputy Chief of Enrollment and Employment Office of RUC and Director of students employment and Entrepreneurship guidance center, shared the employment situation of the graduates of Renmin University of China. She talked about changes in the economic situation, which had effect on the college students' employment greatly, such as steel, metallurgy, aviation industry's ability to absorb graduates gradually weakened, directly affect the related colleges and graduates employment. The demand of graduates of economic developed areas is relatively strong, the relevant enterprises fall and spring campus recruitment is more often, and underdeveloped areas, on the contrary.


Hao Jian, the Senior Human Resources Consultant of Zhilian Zhao Pin, used data from Zhilian, further confirmed the CIER index analysis of the results, and put forward the future can be more cooperation with alibaba focused the disabilities, help people with disabilities to achieve higher quality of employment.


Finally, Professor Zeng Xiangquan made a summary of the meeting. First, according to the CIER index, eliminate seasonal factors and trend factors, the CIER index has a cyclical decline, suggesting that the current economic situation low growth resulting in the employment market cooling trend signs. Second, employment structural contradictions continue to increase. It performed in the industry, occupation, enterprises scale and regions. Third, the effect of the supply reformation for releasing the hidden employment under the background of excess production capacity, will become the difficulty of the employment situation analysis in 2016, but also the focus of research that the China Institute for Employment Research need to strengthen in the future.

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