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The 2012 Second Quarterly Review of China Employment

"The Analysis of 2012 Second-quarter Chinese Labor Market Conditions-Based on the Data from and Suzhou Industrial Zone"

(1) In the second quarter, the CIER Index had a slight fall compared with the first quarter but was higher than the same time last year, which means the emlpoyment situation was more seriouly this year. (2) Applicants increased slightly while the recuiting demand rapidly, resulting in the decline of index in link relative ratio. But compared with last year, the applicants number grew faster than the recruiting demand, leading to higher CIER index. (3) The total number of college graduates got the biggest rise in link relative ratio.On-the-job applicants made a smaller proportion both in link relative ratio and on year-on-year basis,while proportion of dimission applicants and college graduates became larger. (4) Regional index verified trend of the overall employment situation. (5) Both in link relative ratio and on year-on-year basis,the competitive pressure of state organs and institutions decreased while that of foreign-owned enterprises significantly icreased. (6) Competitive pressure of big business remained great while small business was less competitive.

"Association analysis between CIER index and macroeconomic performance targets"

(1) The ARIMA Model was a good fitting to the CIER monthly index. As predicted, CIER monthly index would remain at the level of June,2012 during the three months following. In the third quarter, CIER quarterly index would be essentially flat with the second quarter of 2012; (2) There was a significant negative correlation between CIER index and macro-economic prosperous index (coincident index and lagging index). (3) There was a relatively significant negative correlation between CIER monthly index and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI).

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