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The Third Quarterly Review of China Employment was held successfully in RUC

In the morning of October 16, 2011, CIER successfully held 2011 Third Quarterly Review of China Employment at Room 347 of Qiushi Building,RUC. Deputy Director of Department of Employment and Income Distribution, National Development and Reform Commission Hu Deqiao, Deputy Director of Department of Employment Promotion of MHRSS Yin Jiankun, Division Chief of Department of Population and Employment Statistics Zhang Zhibin, HR Senior Manager and Senior Career Development Advisor of Zhilian Zhaopin Hao Jian, Marketing Director of Zhilian Zhaopian Chen Jiajie attended the meeting at invitation. Professor Zeng Xiangquan, Director of SLHR and CIER, Researcher Liu Erduo and Ding Dajian of CIER and other research staff Geng Lin, Ge Yuhao, Cui Yuxue, Hu Qi also  participated in the meeting. The meeting was chaired by Professor Tang Kuang, Deputy Secretary of Party of SLHR, RUC and Deputy Director of CIER.

 Seminar Scene

Professor Zeng Xiangquan gave an oration at first. He thanked the visitors for their time and support for the work of CIER. He briefly analysed the employment situation of this year and introduced the preparation and scheduling program of this meeting.

Professor Zeng Xiangquan

Researcher Ding Dajian, head of Data Center of SLHR, made a report entitled “The Analysis of 2011 Third-quarter Chinese Labor Market Conditions-Based on the Data from and Suzhou Industrial Zone”. He gave a brief overview of employment situation in the second quarter of 2011, described the on-line recruitment data and analysed the overall employment situation and the CIER index changes of the third quarter of 2011, outlined the structural changes in market supply, and gave an in-depth analysis about the employment and other situation in different industries, occupations, regions (cities) and a typical region (Suzhou Industrial Park). The report is written by researcher Ding Dajian and Doctor Cui Yuxue. The main conclusions in the report are: (1)In the third quarter, the CIER Index remained declining and was still below 1.0. (2)The main reason is recruiting demand increasing less while the supply remained stable. (3)Proportion of different kinds of job hunters changed this quarter perhaps as the result of seasonal factor and still needs observation. (4)Employment pressure of 35 industries declined while that of 11 industries raised because of various reasons. (5)Employment situation polarized with CIER index above 3 in the most fierce occupation while below 0.3 in the least. (6)CIER indexes of Beijing and Shanghai as first-tier cities were below 1.0 for three months continuously. From the perspective of city size, employment competition of second-tier cities was still less fierce than first-tier cities; considering region difference, west region with the highest CIER index dropped the most. (7)CIER index of Suzhou Industrial Zone was identical to the national trend but its market supply and demand reduction were different from the whole country and still worthy of further attention.

Researcher Ding Dajian

Subsequently, Dr. Ge Yuhao made a report of “The Analysis of 2011 Third-quarter Chinese Employment Situation and Policies”. The report indicated that: (1)China's economy maintained steady and rapid growth, employment situation remains stable; (2)entrepreneur confidence fell down bellow 130 after six quarters higher than it; the enterprise index reached 133.4 and kept in 130-138 for eight quarters with a boom situation; (3)new college graduates enter the labor market when the employment situation was better than previous years in general but there still were challenges; (4)State Council and its subordinate departments released 18 employment policy items, mainly focused on marketability policy, labor supply, regional strategic development, industrial upgrading, employment information and public service platform construction, promotion of employment match, attaching great importance to employment of university students; (5) further study on the policies and experience at home and abroad in employment information platform construction is still needed.

Dr. Ge Yuhao

Associate researcher Geng Lin made a reported entitled "Association analysis between CIER index and macroeconomic performance targets" with the updated research results from July,2008 to September, 2011. Conclusions are drawn by trend analysis and relevance analysis on CIER monthly index, number of job hunters and recruiting numbers; dynamic relevance between CIER monthly index and relevant macroeconomic indicators; predictive analysis on CIER monthly index: (1)there is significant correlation between CIER index and macro-economic prosperous index, especially changes in sync between CIER index and the lagging index. (2) Co-integration analysis shows that power generation , urban fixed asset investment, money supply, retail sales, CPI, total imports and exports and other indicators all have
relatively stable long-term equilibrium with CIER index. (3)Causal analysis shows significant causal relationship between CIER index and the macroeconomic indicators mentioned above. (3)ARIMA model has better fit results.

Associate Resercher Geng Lin

After that, Deputy Director Hu, Deputy Director Yin, Division Chief Zhang, Senior Manager Hao and Marketing Director Chen spoke highly of the research results and hoped the academia to continue to pay attention to spirit of the Central document and National strategy, grasp the current employment situation on the macro level, conduct research on labor markets as well as National strategy, industrial policy, monetary policy, population policy, tax policy and education policy. They looked forward to our efforts on offering suggestions on our country's "employment priority strategy".

Deputy Director Hu Deqiao

Deputy Director Yin Jiankun

Division Chief Zhang zhibin

At the end, Dean Zeng made a summary that the meeting maintained pragmatic and laid foundation to further study. He also hoped all sides focus efforts on hotspot and difficult points of China's employment market, and do better research jobs on key issues, key areas and key industries, especially on labor supply. He also proposed cooperation and deep exchange of government, academia, business and international community for prospective study on giving feasibility to "employment priority strategy".

This conference was held successfully with all participants frankly exchanging ideas and they are all confident  future work.

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