《World of Work Report 2010:From one crisis to the next?》
A September report by the research arm of the ILO says a long “labour market recession” is worsening the social outlook in many countries.The study, entitled World of Work Report 2010: From one crisis to the next? And authored by the ILO’s International Institute for Labour Studies, points out that three years into the crisis, the global economy has resumed growth. Yet it also warns that “new clouds have emerged on the employment horizon”.
The study says that, if current policies persist, a recovery in employment to pre-crisis levels will be delayed beyond 2015 in advanced economies, instead of 2013 as it projected last year. Over eight million new jobs, it says,are needed to return to pre-crisis employment levels in developing countries alone. “The longer the labour market recession, the greater the difficulties for jobseekers to obtain new employment,” says the ILO report. “In the 35 countries for which data exist, nearly 40 per cent of jobseekers have been without work for more than one year and therefore run significant risks of demoralization, loss of self-esteem and mental health problems.”The study underscores the urgency of calls by a recent joint ILO and International Monetary Fund (IMF) conference for placing employment creation at the heart of the economic recovery, and making full employment a key macroeconomic objective alongside low inflation and sound fiscal policies.
The ILO study provides a three-pronged approach for getting out of the crisis. The first part of the approach would strengthen job-centred policies, reducing the risk of long-term unemployment. These policies should include targeted measures to support vulnerable groups, training that serves the needs of recovery, and employment-oriented social protection. Such measures have been used successfully in different regions of the world and are inexpensive to the public purse. The second policy approach would promote a closer link between wages and productivity gains. Such a measure, the study shows, would be more effective in supporting growth in all countries than exchange-rate changes. The third would require that financial reform be carried out that allows savings to be channelled to more productive investment and the creation of more stable jobs. |
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