On April 22, 2015, China Institute for Employment Research successfully held 2015 First Quarterly Review of Employment in China at Room 347 of Qiushi Building, RUC. Sun Zhongzhen, Director of Director of Employment and Income Allocation Department, National Development and Reform Commission, Guo Cheng, Director of Employment Promotion Department, National Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Wu Jie, Director of Population and Employment Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics, Hao Jian, senior recruiting consultant of Zhaopin.com, Zhu Hongyan, Huang Ruoshan, manager and supervisor of Marketing and Communication Department of Zhaopin.com, Zhang Xiaoguang, manager of Consulting Department of the human resources company of Suzhou Industrial Park, Hao Jianbin, You Wuyang, Policy Specialist of Alibaba Group, etc, attended the meeting at invitation. Professor Yang Weiguo, Dean of SLHR, Professor Zeng Xiangquan, Director of CIER, Ding Dajian, Director of Data Center of SLHR and CIER Researcher, and other researchers, Geng Lin, Ge Yuhao, Hao Yuming, Zhang Chenggang, etc., also participated in the meeting. The meeting was hosted by Professor Yang Weiguo.
To begin with, Professor Yang Weiguo gave thanks on behalf of SLHR to the support and efforts of the government, enterprises and the academia to the quarterly employment analysis conference. Then, he briefly introduced the sections of the meeting.
In the following panel discussion, researcher Ding Dajian gave a speech entitled “The Analysis of 2015 First Quarter Chinese Employment Situation Based on the Internet Data from Zhaopin.com.
The speech consisted of two parts: CIER index adjustment analysis and employment situation analysis of the 2015 first quarter. Based on data analysis of Zhaopin.com, researcher Ding Dajian found that the rapid growth of recruiting demand of Zhaopin.com was partly due to the increase of Zhaopin.com’s market share, which will cause the overestimate of recruiting demand and the continuous decrease of CIER index. He proposed to adjust the increase of the number of companies based on the average change of the number of legal entities according to economic census data in 2008-2013 and estimated to adjusted CIER index. The adjusted CIER index had three advantages: (1) the amplitude of decrease became significantly smaller; (2) seasonal changes became larger and CIER index became more sensitive; (3) CIER index became more close the reality and more understandable. Besides, he believed that the seasonal rebound trend of CIER index of the 2015 first quarter became weak and was still on the decrease, which meant that the employment pressure still didn’t recover.
Zhang Xiaoguang delivered a speech entitled "Report Human Resources Situation in Suzhou Industrial Park in the First Quarter of 2015”. Firstly, he analyzed human resources index of the park in the first quarter of 2015 and market data. He found that in the first quarter, the demand index and the supply index both decreased compared with that of last year. The supply index dropped faster than the demand index, which cause the human resources matching index to decrease compared with that of last year. The human resources market feature and graduate employment situation indicated that: (1) in the first quarter, emerging industries, real estate industry and finance industry enjoyed rapid development, while traditional manufacturing industry required less labor; (2) Chinese--invested enterprises and Taiwanese-invested enterprise had fast development, while enterprises of Europe, America, Japan and Korea had weaker performance. (3) the average annual salary increase of employees of the Park was 8.8% and those who worked at the production line enjoyed salary increase of 14.0%; (4) compared with traditional manufacturing industries such as electronics industry and machinery industry, emerging industries such as biomedical industry, Nano technology industry and cloud computing industry showed strong graduates absorption capacity. Finally, he made predictions on human resource situation of the Park of the second quarter of 2015: The recruiting demand of manufacturing companies will experience small decrease, while the recruiting demand of service industry and high-tech companies will go up. He believed that high-tech companies will have the largest increase of the number of employees to be recruited.
CIER researcher Geng Lin gave a speech entitled “Labor Market Predication Based on CIER Index”. First, she looked into macro-economy in the first quarter of 2015. Then, she made predications on labor market based on CIER index. The main conclusions of the speech were: (1) the economic increase rate of the first quarter dropped to 7%. Under the condition that industrial investment was undergoing accelerated decrease, the service sector made more contributions; (2) after removing seasonal influences, the trend index of CIER index was still in slow decrease, which may be the result of change of the supply and demand of labor market; The period index of CIER index was still stable, which was the same as last quarter. The dynamic feature of CIER index in this quarter was due largely to seasonal influences; (3) the prediction of the model showed that the CIER index of 2015 second quarter will have slight decrease compare with that of the 2015 first quarter. As the macro economy was still weak, the decrease of CIER index was mainly because of seasonal influence.
CIER associate researcher Ge Yuhao reported on the project of the World Bank “Result Evaluation of Employment and Training Projects of Migrant Workers”. The report included the project background, evaluation dimensions, method, results and conclusions. The project was led by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security in 2008-2009, and evaluated the employment and training projects of migrant workers supported by the loan of the World Bank in Shandong, Anhui and Ningxia province. The evaluation was consisted of the direct effect of the training, the subjective feedback of the trainees, working hours and the stability of labor and social security and employment. Due to the limit of data, the project employed normal regression method and found that: the training projects had significant effect on trainees’ certificate acquisition, subjective feedback, hourly salary and labor and social security, which some of the effect, such as salary, may become weak as time went by.
After that, in the free talk period, Sun Zhongzhen, Guo Cheng, Wu Jie, Hao Jianbin and so on spoke highly of the seminar and exchanged their viewpoints on employment trend. They also had more discuss on topics of the increase of the risk of structural unemployment and recessive unemployment, the decrease of the number of people who had trouble finding a job, the expansion of small online shops, etc.,.
Finally, Professor Zeng Xiangquan made a summary of the meeting. (1) Facing the risk of the increase of recessive unemployment, the government should set up new indicators to monitor labor markets. Since Labor Contract Law had restrictions on termination of employment, the economic downturn didn’t cause layoffs in mining industry and steel industry, as well as in public institutions, which may cause the increase of recessive unemployment and repeated the situation in 1990s. To make precise judgement on employment situation in China, recessive unemployment should be considered and indicators that showed utilization rate of labor, such as working hours, should be analyzed. (2) Under the situation of industrial restructuring, more focus should be placed on the structural change of employment. The rise of internet industry represented the development of emerging industry, and internet industry created jobs while eliminating jobs. The net effect need to be analyzed. With industrial restructuring, more researches should be led on regional structure, industrial structure and crowd structure, etc., and raised the quality of policies. (3) To make judgements on employment situation more accurate, close cooperation between CIER and Zhaopin.com need to be enhanced and both sides can make better use of the data on Zhaopin.com based on co-researches on new methods and tools. |
China Institute for Employment Research. All rights reserved.