On October 11, 2014, China Institute for Employment Research successfully held 2014 Third Quarterly Review of Employment in China at Room 347 of Qiushi Building, RUC. Deputy Director of Department of Employment and Income Distribution, National Development and Reform Commission Hu Deqiao, Deputy Director of Department of Employment Promotion of MHRSS Zhang Ying, Deputy Director of Department of Population and Employment Statistics Zhang Zhibin, General Manager of Suzhou Industrial Park, Human Resources Development Co., LTD, Kang Yue, Executive Director of Product Operation of Zhaopin.com, Hao Jian, Senior Specialist of Alibaba Group, etc, attended the meeting at invitation. Dean of SLHR and Director of CIER, Professor Zeng Xiangquan, Director of Data Center of SLHR and CIER Researcher, Ding Dajian, and other research staff, Geng Lin, Ge Yuhao, Yang Yumei, Li Xiaoman, etc., also participated in the meeting. The meeting was hosted by Professor Tang Kuang, Party Secretary of SLHR.
The 2014 Third Quarterly Review of Employment in China Meeting Place
Professor Zeng Xiangquan introduced the preparation work before the 2014 Third Quarterly Review and some changes on content and agenda.
Dean of SLHR and Director of CIER, Professor Zeng Xiangquan
First, researcher Geng Lin gave a speech entitled “The Analysis of 2014 Third Quarter Chinese Employment Situation Based on the Internet Data from Zhaopin.com. To begin with, she gave a brief review of employment situation in the second quarter of 2014 and described the online recruitment data and the changes of CIER index in the third quarter. Then she went into detailed analysis of the reason why CIER index changed, employment situation of different industries, occupations, regions (large and medium-sized cities) and different kinds and sizes of companies. She believed that the changes of CIER index of the third quarter of 2014 had the following features: (1) CIER quarterly index showed seasonally continuous decrease and employment situation was stable; (2) The recruiting demand had larger increase and was not in accordance with economic situation, to which attention should be paid; (3) The differences between competitive pressures of employment among industries and occupations shrank in this quarter, and influence of institutional factors still exited; (4) The differences between inter-city and inter-regional competitive pressures of employment shrank in this quarter. The employment situation of east, central and west regions became balanced. The employment pressure of second-tier was greater than that of first-tier cities; (5) the competitive differences among different kinds of companies reflected job seekers’ pursuit for stable jobs. She also made predictions on the CIER index of the fourth quarter: economy was expected to recover stronger in the fourth quarter due to better credit and overseas market demand situation and loosen property market restrictions. The CIER index of October and November would be almost the same as that of September and would show a little bit increase because macro-economy is still relatively weak. On December, due to seasonal influence, the CIER index would have a significant decrease.
Deputy Researcher Geng Lin
General Manager Kang Yue delivered a speech entitled "Report Human Resources Situation in Suzhou Industrial Park in the Third Quarter of 2014”. Firstly, he analyzed human resources index of the park in the third quarter of 2014 and market data. He found that: (1) in the third quarter, the demand index was 3705%, which decreased a little bit compared with last month. However, the demand of companies has been stable since the third quarter of last year, which showed that the companies had positive prospective on economy; (2) In the third quarter, the supply index was 627%, which was increased by 78% compared with last quarter and 20% compared with the same time last year, and indicated job seekers were quite confident of find a job in the park; (3) in the third quarter, the overall demand of companies appeared to be stable compared with the same time last year, and there was an increase in the number of job seekers; (4) in the third quarter, the total human resource matching index of the park was 171%, which was increased by 22% compared with last quarter and 50% compared with the same time last year. He then analyzed the features of human resource market and the situation of graduate employment in the park. He found: (1) there was a significant increase on the demand in internet industry and a decrease in real estate industry; (2) the demand of small and micro businesses increased a lot compared with the same time last year; (3) the pay of the first-tier employees in the park raised a lot on year-on-year basis; (4) in the third quarter, high-tech companies on biomedical, nanometer and cloud computing technology showed strong ability of absorbing graduating students; (5) there was a slight increase on the starting yearly compensation of graduates compared with that of last year. The median of the compensation was 36000 yuan for graduates with a bachelor degree and 54000 yuan for graduates with a master degree. At last, he made a prediction of human resource situation of the fourth quarter of 2014: The recruiting demand of park enterprises will be stable with some increases in services industry and high-tech industry and companies would be quite confident about the market.
General Manager, Kang Yue
CIER researcher Yang Yumei gave a speech entitled “The Analysis of Job Hunting Based on the Preliminary Conclusions Drew from Data of Employers from Zhaopin.com”. She analyzed 132353 valid data samples and measured job seekers’ job hunting intensity by counting how many times a job seeker submits his/her resume in a quarter. She found: (1) the job hunting intensity in 2014 was higher than that of 2013; (2) job hunting intensity was influenced by some company characteristics: job seekers were more interested in joint venture enterprises and exclusively foreign-owned enterprise and there was higher job hunting intensity. The larger the enterprises, the greater the competition. The job hunting intensity of jobs with relatively high and low pay was higher, which indicated that the competition of high-end and low-end positions was fiercer; (3) companies except for State Organs were in greater demand of job hunters with a degree of a junior college. State Organs and public institutions had higher requirements on degree and school. Companies were more interested in students that were not in 211 and 985 colleges, which may be related to the feature of the position. Different types of companies didn’t have too specific preference requirements on years of working. She also analyzed the influence of labor market demand and supply condition on the duration of job vacancy. She found: (1) company scale, pay level and labor market condition had significant influence on the duration of vacancy; (2) company scale: with a reference group of companies with more than 10000 people, the larger the scale, the longer the duration of vacancy; (3) pay level: with a reference group of companies that had 15001-25000 people, the coefficient was negative, which indicated that the higher the pay level, the shorter the duration of vacancy. And the higher the pay level, the more the number of job hunters, so companies had more choices; (4) labor market demand and supply condition: the coefficient was positive, which indicated that compared with the number of those who lost their jobs, more job vacancies intensified competition among them, which resulted in the extension of the duration of vacancy.
CIER deputy researcher Yang Yumei
After that, in the free talk period, the Deputy Director Hu Deqiao, Zhang Ying, Zhang Zhibin, Director Hao Jian, Specialist Hao Jianbin and so on spoke highly of the seminar and exchanged their own viewpoints with the experts based on topics of economic condition, industry structure adjustment, employment quality, big data, etc.,.
National Development and Reform Commission Hu Deqiao
Deputy Director of Department of Employment Promotion of MHRSS Zhang Ying
Deputy Director of Department of Population and Employment Statistics Zhang Zhibin
Finally, Dean Zeng made a summary of the meeting. He believed that since the employment situation in China is complicated, analyzing it by using traditional indicators has been restricted, especially for analyzing the relationship between employment situation and economic situation. The labor supply decrease caused by the decrease of the number of labor force has been a hot topic in China. Thus, the judgment and analysis on employment situation need to be updated accordingly. He made the following suggestions: related national departments should improve basic work on measurement of employment and unemployment; CIER should make the plan on quarterly employment analysis and research, including important basic researches and researches that are valued by the government; cooperation between school and companies, government and companies, etc. should be enhanced to make better use of big data and improve the quarterly researches on employment. At last, he gave thanks to the support and efforts of the government, enterprises and the academia to the quarterly employment analysis conference. He hoped that all sides would further enhance communication cross border and collectively better take on the role of the think tank of governmental employment decision department.
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