中国就业研究所

In the morning of July 12, 2012, CIER successfully held 2012 Second Quarterly Conference of China Employment Review at Room 347 of Qiushi Building, RUC. Deputy Director of Department of Employment and Income Distribution, National Development and Reform Commission Hu Deqiao,Deputy Director of Department of Employment Promotion of MHRSS Yin Jiankun, Division Chief of Department of Population and Employment Statistics Zhang Zhibin, Researcher Zhang Libin from Research Institute of Labor Science, National Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security attended the meeting at invitation. Professor Zeng Xiangquan, Dean of SLHR and Director of CIER, Professor Yang Weiguo, Division Chief of asset planning office of RUC, Deputy Director of SLHR and CIER, Researcher Ding Dajian of CIER and other researchers Geng Lin,Cui Yuxue, Li Hongjian, Hu Qi, Zhang Chenggang also participated in the seminar.The conferrence was chaired by Professor Tang Kuang, Deputy Secretary of Party of SLHR, RUC and Deputy Director of CIER.

Researcher Ding Dajian, head of Data Center of SLHR, made a report entitled “The Analysis of 2012 Second-quarter Chinese Labor Market Conditions-Based on the Data from Zhaopin.com and Suzhou Industrial Zone”. He gave a brief overview of employment situation in the first quarter of 2012, described the on-line recruitment data and analysed the overall employment situation and the CIER index changes of the third quarter of 2011, outlined the structural changes in market supply, and gave an in-depth analysis about the employment and other situation in different industries, occupations, regions (cities) and a typical region (Suzhou Industrial Park). The report is written by researcher Ding Dajian and Doctor Cui Yuxue. The main conclusions in the report are: (1) In the second quarter, the CIER Index had a slight fall compared with the first quarter but was higher than the same time last year, which means the emlpoyment situation was more seriouly this year. (2) Applicants increased slightly while the recuiting demand rapidly, resulting in the decline of index in link relative ratio. But compared with last year, the applicants number grew faster than the recruiting demand, leading to higher CIER index. (3) The total number of college graduates got the biggest rise in link relative ratio.On-the-job applicants made a smaller proportion both in link relative ratio and on year-on-year basis,while proportion of dimission applicants and college graduates became larger. (4) Regional index verified trend of the overall employment situation. (5) Both in link relative ratio and on year-on-year basis,the competitive pressure of state organs and institutions decreased while that of foreign-owned enterprises significantly icreased. (6) Competitive pressure of big business remained great while small business was less competitive.

Associate researcher Geng Lin made a report entitled "Association analysis between CIER index and macroeconomic performance targets" with the updated research results since October, 2008 till June, 2012. Conclusions are drawn by trend analysis and correlation analysis on CIER monthly index, number of job hunters and recruiting numbers; dynamic relevance between CIER monthly index and relevant macroeconomic indicators; predictive analysis on CIER monthly index. The correlation analysis between CIER monthly index and PMI and the pridiction analysis showed that: (1) The ARIMA Model was a good fitting to the CIER monthly index. As predicted, CIER monthly index would remain at the level of June,2012 during the three months following. In the third quarter, CIER quarterly index would be essentially flat with the second quarter of 2012; (2) There was a significant negative correlation between CIER index and macro-economic prosperous index (coincident index and lagging index). (3) There was a relatively significant negative correlation between CIER monthly index and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI).

After that, the Deputy Director Hu Deqiao, Yin Jiankun, Division Chief Zhang Zhibin and Reasearcher Zhang Libin spoke highly of seminar for the efforts of our researchers and exchanged their own viewpoints with the experts.

At the end of the conference, Professor Zeng Xiangquan made concluding remarks. Despite of the declining of the second-quarter CIER index compared with last quarter, he said, the rallying since the forth quarter of 2011 from 0.83 to current 1.05 reflected the turning point appeared obviously. Chinese econony now are faced with tough chioces among various targets such as economic growth, employment increase, price stability, fiscal revenue increase and stable real estate prices. He emphasized importance of research on empolyment equality including working hours, wages and employment type. He also encouraged more in-depth discussion and more extensive views on labor demand and labor supply. He gave thanks to the support and efforts of the government, enterprises and the academia to the quarterly employment analysis conference. He hoped that all sides would continue work together to implement the "Employment Priority Stratagy" of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan".