In the morning of April 14, 2012, CIER successfully held 2012 First Quarterly Conference of China Employment Review at Room 347 of Qiushi Building, RUC. Deputy Director of Department of Employment Promotion of MHRSS Yin Jiankun, Division Chief of Department of Population and Employment Statistics Zhang Zhibin, Division Chief of Department of Employment and Income Distribution, National Development and Reform Commission Sun Zhongzhen attended the meeting at invitation. Professor Zeng Xiangquan, Dean of SLHR and Director of CIER, Professor Yang Weiguo, Division Chief of asset planning office of RUC, Deputy Director of SLHR and CIER, Researcher Ding Dajian of CIER and other researchers Geng Lin, Ge Yuhao, Cui Yuxue, Wang Zhen, Yuan Gang, Hu Qi also participated in the meeting. The meeting was chaired by Professor Yi Dinghong, Head of Department of Labor Economics of SLHR, RUC.
Seminar
Professor Zeng Xiangquan
Researcher Ding Dajian, head of Data Center of SLHR, made a report entitled “The Analysis of 2012 First-quarter Employment situation of China: Based on the Data from Zhaopin.com and Suzhou Industrial Zone”. He gave a brief review of the employment situation of last quarter, and then gave an in-depth analysis about the employment and other situation in the first quarter of 2012 from the following point of view: different industries, occupations, regions (cities) and a typical region (Suzhou Industrial Park). The report is written by researcher Ding Dajian and Doctor Cui Yuxue. The main conclusions in the report are: (1) In the first quarter, the CIER Index was rising rapidly and returned to more than 1 after three consecutive quarters. (2) The main reason of the index rising is the increasing speed of recruiting demand slowly while that of supply sharply. (3) Numbers of different kinds of job hunters were all increased in the first quarter, including the unemployment applicants, on-the-job seekers and the college graduates, especially unemployment applicants. (4) Employment competitive pressure of all industries increased compared with last quarter while that of most occupations grew as well. (5) CIER indexes of all cities showed a rise in the first quarter. From the perspective of city scale, employment competition of first-tier cities was obviously more serious. While considering regional differences, competitive pressure of western region was the biggest, then western areas and central areas. (6) Competitive pressure of state organs declined compared with both last quarter and the same time last year while that of state-owned enterprises and representative offices declined compared with last quarter. (7) Large enterprises with more than 10000 employees had a drop in recruiting demand and an increase in application, so the competition is relatively fierce; CIER indexes of small enterprises with less than 1000 employees were below 1, with less competition in employment. (8) Changes of CIER index of Suzhou Industrial Zone reflected the impact of economic slowdown on higher competitive pressure of labor market.
Professor Ding Dajian
Dr. Ge Yuhao made the report of “The Analysis of 2011 First-quarter Chinese Employment Situation and Policies”. The report indicated that: (1) the macro-economic situation of the first quarter showed a better tendency with less inflationary pressure. The entrepreneur confidence index rebounded while the prosperous index declined a little (still in the range of prosperity), indicating that entrepreneurs’ cautiously optimistic attitude towards China's future economic development; (2) employment policies were focused mainly on market policy, particularly the match of labor market and the side of labor supply; (3) college graduates were the major group of employment this quarter, while policies also paid attention to other interest groups; (4) unemployment policies is important for the behavior of both sides of the labor market, so improvement of related laws and regulations will make big differences in practice; (5) present unemployment policies showed inefficacies to improve such as narrow coverage, insufficient payment incentive, unreasonable fund balances and weak employment orientation.
 Docotr Ge Yuhao
Associate researcher Geng Lin made a report entitled "Association analysis between CIER index and macroeconomic performance targets" with the updated research results from July, 2008 to March, 2012. Conclusions are drawn by trend analysis and correlation analysis on CIER monthly index, number of job hunters and recruiting numbers; dynamic relevance between CIER monthly index and relevant macroeconomic indicators; predictive analysis on CIER monthly index. (1) The CIER index of the first quarter approximately matches the prediction last quarter. CIER Index of January declined compared with last month, while that of February got a substantial rise, and slightly falling down in March. Data of February was higher in reality than our forecast. (2) The ARIMA Model was a good fitting to the CIER monthly index. According to the model and as can be seen, the index of April fell back after March, and went on falling in May, but had a rally in June. (3) There is a significant negative correlation between CIER index and macro-economic prosperous index (coincident index and lagging index), while a strong positive correlation between the whole recruiting number and the macro-economic prosperous index (coincident index and lagging index). The correlations were stronger after June, 2009.
 Researcher Geng Lin
The Deputy Director Yin Jiankun, Division Chief Zhang Zhibin and Sun Zhongzhen spoke highly of seminar for the efforts of our researchers and exchanged their own viewpoints with the experts.
Deputy Director Yin Jiankun
Division Chief Zhang Zhibin
Division Chief Sun zhongzhen
At the end of the conference, Professor Zeng Xiangquan made concluding remarks. He analyzed the emerging complicated employment problems. In short term, the labor demand will be consistent with macro economy and get no big increase. But the economic structural adjustment is greater. Besides, the economic situation is unstable, and there may appear an inflection point soon. He hoped that all sides would continue to do research on labor supply and its prediction with macro economy and make more exchange in the future.
Professor Yi dinghong |
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