David Dollar Benjamin F. Jones. 2013. China: An institutional view of an unusual macroeconomy. Working Paper 19662. National Bureau of Economic Research
Abstract: China presents several macroeconomic patterns that appear inconsistent with standard stylized facts about economic development and hence inconsistent with the standard neoclassical growth model. We show that Chinese macroeconomic patterns instead appear consistent with an environment where state control of factor markets can promote aggressive output goals. We consider the micro-institutional features that can sustain this behavior, emphasizing the hukou system and state control over capital allocation, and present a simple model built on these features. The model can explain several puzzling facts about the Chinese economy, including its unusually low labor share and unusually high saving and investment rates. Interestingly, the model also shows that free-market reforms can initially take the economy further from global macroeconomic norms.
摘要：中国在经济发展上展现出了一些与标准程序化事实不一致的宏观经济模式，这当然与新古典增长模式不一致。我们证明了能够促进激进的产出目标的是中国宏观经济模式，而非国家政权对要素市场的控制环境。我们认为微观制度特征能够维持这种行为（强调了户口制度与国家最资本分配的控制）并在这些特征上建立了简单模型。该模型能够解释中国经济多个令人迷惑的事实，包括它异常低的劳动份额和异常高的储蓄与投资率。有趣的是，该模型也展示了自由市场改革能够让经济远超全球宏观经济常值。
数据来源：来自参考文献
研究方法：不清楚
Conclusion: This paper shows that China’s macroeconomic performance is an outlier with respect to (i) global norms and (ii) the prior experience of other rapidly-growing Asian economies. In particular, China shows highly elevated savings and investment rates, coupled with depressed consumption and a depressed labor share. The paper then considers micro-institutional features of the Chinese system that can lead to these unusual aggregate phenomena. The model shows how the hukou system, limiting migration from rural to urban areas, can create surplus labor supply for higher-productivity jobs in cities, depressing the labor share and expanding savings.
Meanwhile, government control of capital markets, including cross border capital controls and state-controlled domestic lending, direct elevated savings into unusually high domestic investment rates. In addition to suggesting an explanation for unusual macroeconomic aggregates, the model is also broadly consistent with elevated enterprise saving rates and, perhaps most importantly, the large wage discount for migrant workers in China’s cities that has been discussed extensively in the micro-literature.
结论：本文阐述了中国的宏观经济表现是全球常模的异常值以及其他亚洲高速发展经济体的先头经验。特别地，公国表现出了极高的储蓄和投资率，以及较低的消费与劳工股权。然后 本文考虑了中国系统中那些能够导致不寻常总效应的微观制度特征。模型显示了户口制度、限制乡镇居民向城市流动，能够为城市中的高生产率工作提供多余的劳动力供给，降低劳工股权并扩大储蓄。与此同时，政府控制着资本市场，包括跨境资本与政府控制的国内贷款，直接将储蓄提升为超高的国内投资回报率。在给出不寻常宏观经济的解释之外，该模型也在很大程度上与企业存款率以及，也许是最关键的，在微观制度上被讨论的中国城市中外来工人薪酬的大下跌相一致。
（By 潘一坤) |
